By Aryan Ghosh, Incoming Writer, The Bohemian Magazine
In view of statements by President Joe Biden of the United States of America and President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China as well as Chinese incursions into Taiwanese airspace have sent the minds of people into havoc, thinking that Taiwan will be the focal point for any direct confrontation between the US and China which will ultimately “escalate to a full scale Third World War”. However, that is not the case and evidence to back such a claim is deeply embedded not only in history but in the very ways the US has responded to in situations of armed aggression inflicted by American adversaries on American allies in the past decade. However, before looking at the World War 3 aspect of Taiwan, it is important to understand the power dynamics involved in Taiwan and the complex history involved.
How was Taiwan formed?
Taiwan may look like just a small island in the sea but it held strategic importance for the Imperial Fascist Forces of Japan during World War II when Japan had colonized what was then known as, the Republic of China. Following the surrender of Japan, the Allied Powers considered as Taiwan to still be under military occupation of the Empire of Japan. This continued till the signing of the Treaty of San Francisco where China was not present since countries were perplexed about which Government they should invite. Now, the reason behind this was that since 1927, there were two factions, contesting with each other for political control over China: One side had formed the Government known as the Republic of China with its capital at Nanjing, and were called the Taiwanese Nationalists or the Kuomintang (KMT). The belligerent opposition to the KMT was the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which had in fact, joined forces with the KMT from 1937 to 1945, to form a Second United Front to fight the Japanese invasion of China, with the help of the Allied Powers. Following the surrender of the Imperial Fascists of Japan, the Chinese Civil War began once again between the KMT forces led by Chang Kai-Shek and the Communist Red Army led by Mao Zedong. In 1949, the Communist Red Army gained control of mainland China, thus forcing the Taiwanese Nationalist leadership to retreat to the island of Taiwan. Mao Zedong established and thereby, became the President of the People’s Republic of China as well as the Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party. What perhaps emerged as a problematic issue at this point was the recognition of the “true” representative of the people of China since both the CCP-established People’s Republic of China and KMT-established Republic of China (Taiwan) claimed to be so. At the time however, the Republic of China (Taiwan) had already become a member of the United Nations and even held the seat of Permanent Membership in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
Analyzing the policies of major world powers in relation to the recognition of the “true” representative of the people of China
It is important to first understand that US policy towards Taiwan often relates to the phrase “strategic ambiguity” which I would like to interpret as a policy adopted by a country which involves deliberate vagueness as a deterrent to any conflict arising hereby from any policy goals which might be contrary to what is expected from the country in question. Now, let us understand how this policy of “strategic ambiguity” has evolved over time. When the Korean War of 1950 broke out between the Soviet Union-China aided North Korea and the US-aided South Korea, the US provided economic and military support to the Republic of China (Taiwan). Military presence in the US primarily included the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) and the United States Taiwan Defense Command (USTDC). The Sino-American Mutual defense Treaty was also signed between the US and the Republic of China (Taiwan) in 1954. The US also provided financial aid to the Republic of China (Taiwan) through the Foreign Assistance Act, the Mutual Security Act and the Act for International Development. A major factor behind so much US support for the Republic of China (Taiwan) was perhaps the only one thing the US usually sees before providing a country with humanitarian and financial support, that the Government of the Republic of China (Taiwan) ardently supported the US in the international stage. However, favoritism without any factual basis can go on for only so long.
After the end of the Second World War, there emerged two major superpowers with conflicting ideologies, one being the United States of America which advocated the system of capitalism and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) or the Soviet Union which advocated the system of communism. This conflict of ideologies resulted in a Cold War between the two countries, a state of proxy warfare wherein the US and Soviet Union engaged in warfare, not directly but rather through “proxies” by funding and arming conflicting sides in military conflicts in other countries. The period of the Cold War witnessed both the US and the Soviet Union take major steps to gain allies. An example of this was the Marshall Plan of 1948 which was a plan by the US to send $13 billion in economic recovery programs to Western European countries. The horrors of the ruthless and merciless rule of Joseph Stalin in the Soviet Union came to an end with his death and he was succeeded by Nikita Khrushchev who stunned the entire world by criticizing Stalin’s policies and bringing upon a period of De-Stalinization which involved multiple political reforms in the country. One of these reforms also involved peaceful co-existence between the Eastern and Western Blocs. However, a close ideological ally of the Soviet Union, the People’s Republic of China was not exactly a fan of such measures. The CCP decried Khrushchev’s new approach to the West as “revisionism” since the PRC had more of a belligerent stance towards the West. Moreover, the growing ties between the Soviet Union and India turned out to be another thorn in the Soviet Union-PRC relationship. What was more surprising was that the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China were no longer agreeing on even ideology. They’re approached doctrinal divergences that arose from their different interpretations and practical applications of Marxism-Leninism. Seeing these divisions, the US had to gain support of the CCP against the Soviet Union. Thus, it played the best card it had: Recognition of the Republic of China (Taiwan). On 1st January, 1979, the US embassy in Taipei was shifted to Beijing and with that, the US switched diplomatic recognition from the Republic of China (Taiwan) to the People’s Republic of China. In 1980, the US eliminated the Mutual defense Treaty it had signed with the Republic of China (Taiwan).
However, what also happened was that a very ambiguous and vague law called the Taiwan Relations Act, 1979 (H.R.2479) which was signed by then US President Jimmy Carter. What perhaps is important to note that it mentions that the US decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China “rests upon” the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by “peaceful means”. Under the pretext of “maintaining peace and stability” in the Western Pacific area, the US would also provide “defense articles and defense services” in such quantity as necessary for Taiwan’s self-defense. Despite officially stating a clear elimination of diplomatic relations, the Taiwan Relations Act, 1979 also stated that the absence of diplomatic relations does not affect US laws relating to Taiwan, actions in all US courts, ownership of real property or other “things of value, contractual obligations and debts of the people on Taiwan. Another detail worth noting is that it prohibits any US agency, commission or department from denying an export license application or revoking any existing export license for nuclear exports to Taiwan. It also “provides for” the continued membership of the people of Taiwan in any international financial institution or any other international organization. Now, considering that it is up to the member states of the concerned international financial institution or organization to determine whether Taiwan should me a member, we can interpret this point as simply US support for Taiwan’s membership. The Taiwan Relations Act, 1979 also forms the American Institute of Taiwan which is to operate as this semi-official embassy for the US to continue relations with Taiwan. In 1982, the US accepted a set of guidelines provided by the then Government of the Republic of China (Taiwan) as a sort of framework for conducting relations between the two countries. Also titled the “Six Assurances”, the framework included provisions that the US would not alter terms of the Taiwan Relations Act, 1979, not consult China before making decisions about arms deals with Taiwan, not mediate between Taiwan and China, not alter its position on the sovereignty of Taiwan which was a question to be decided peacefully by the Chinese people themselves and that the US would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. The 1st , 2nd and 3rd Joint Communiques the US and the PRC signed established that the US would respect China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, there is one China and the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal Government of China and that the US would end political ties with the Republic of China (Taiwan) while preserving cultural and economic ties and that the US would gradually decrease its arms sales to Taiwan.
However, the Obama Administration and the Trump administration approved arms deals with Taiwan consisting of anti-tank missiles, Stinger missiles, tanks, etc. On 9th August, 2020, the US Secretary of Health and Human Services, Alex Azar visited Taiwan to meet President Tsai Ing-wen, thus making it the first visit of an American official since the end of diplomatic relations between the United States of America and the Republic of China (Taiwan). In September, 2020, US Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment, Keith J. Krach attended the memorial service of former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui. It was also during that time that then US Ambassador to the United Nations, Kelly Craft, met with James K.J. Lee, Director-General of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York, who was Secretary General in Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs until July. This marked the first meeting between a top Taiwanese official and a US ambassador to the United Nations. Kelly Craft also met President Tsai Ing-wen by video link and called Taiwan “a force for good on the global stage- a vibrant democracy, a generous humanitarian actor, a responsible actor in the global health community and a vigorous promoter and defender of human rights”. Recently, US President Joseph R. Biden Jr stated that the US would defend Taiwan if China were to invade the country. Moreover, Taiwan was also invited to the “Summit of Democracy” by the US. All this comes during rising tensions between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China in the trade war, fight for allies, the South China Sea dispute and others.
At the end, what can be understood is that the US recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the “sole representative” of the Chinese people while also maintaining strong ties with the Republic of China (Taiwan) to act as a buffer against the PRC. The US does not want to restrict its foreign policy options and that means, having to ensure prevention of direct confrontation with the PRC over Taiwan while maintaining strong economic and cultural ties with Taiwan, not to mention now emerging political ties. It is this vagueness that can be interpreted in so many ways that the US can find some way or the other to justify their actions, therefore earning it the name “Strategic Ambiguity”.
The People’s Republic of China
Being one of the competitors seeking complete recognition from the international community as the only true representative of the Chinese people, the People’s Republic of China has constantly argued that the Republic of China (Taiwan) is a part of China and thus the Taiwan issue is an internal affair of the PRC. The Preamble of the Constitution of the PRC states that “Taiwan is part of the sacred territory of the People’s Republic of China. It is the sacred duty of all the Chinese people, including our fellow Chinese in Taiwan, to achieve the great reunification of the motherland”. In 2005, the PRC brought in an Anti-Secession Law, the reason behind it being, as stated in Article 1 of the law, “for the purpose of opposing and checking Taiwan's secession from China by secessionists in the name of "Taiwan independence", promoting peaceful national reunification, maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits, preserving China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and safeguarding the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation”. Article 3 of the law clearly articulates that solving the Taiwan question and achieving national reunification is China’s internal affair which subjects to no interference from “outside forces”. This prevents the United Nations from taking any action despite the fact that it can be argued that the Taiwan issue is a threat to international peace and security, considering the worrying rhetoric from the US and Chinese sides, not to mention the deployment of hundreds of Chinese bombers in Taiwanese airspace. Article 8 of the Anti-Secession Law provided the Government of the PRC to take “non-peaceful means and other necessary measures” to protect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the event of a formal secession of Taiwan from China. The law also provides for frameworks to settle the dispute peacefully through negotiations and the deepening of economic and trade ties between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan). However, with an Anti-China administration in Taiwan and an American administration determined to push the Taiwan issue and bring Taiwan into international bodies and organizations like the United Nations and the World Health Organization (WHO), the PRC has begun a rhetoric which is worrying in its own ways. Despite the complete overhaul of the Hong Kong elections and genocidal acts against the Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, the CCP wants to paint current President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping as one of the greatest leaders of the PRC who has advanced the country to the international stage through socialism with Chinese characteristics. In November, 2021, the Chinese Communist Party passed a historic resolution which was a summary of the 100 years of the party and addressed its key achievements and future directions. The first was passed by Mao Zedong in 1945 and the second by Deng Xiaoping in 1981. This shows that Xi Jinping is trying to paint a picture where he can be the only one to lead China to further greatness in the international forum and thus, is the one to solve China’s issues which range from Taiwan to the South China Sea. The violent and legal actions resorted to by the PRC through the Hong Kong National Security Law or the Law of the People’s Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, to fundamentally distort the democratic nature of Hong Kong and force it to take a Pro-China stance, show exactly the extent to which the PRC can go to ensure that they get what they want and they do it to consolidate power and gain support from the masses who believe in Chinese supremacy in the global stage.
On 10th October, 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping, while speaking in the Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, vowed to achieve “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan and did not mention the use of force. He stated that “Taiwan independence separatism is the biggest obstacle to achieving the reunification of the motherland and the most serious hidden danger to national rejuvenation”. What is important to note here is the term “national rejuvenation” which is a term constantly emphasized upon by the CCP and its Chairman, Xi Jinping. The CCP has been trying to formulate Chinese society in a way which fits exactly to the image of socialism with Chinese characteristics and an important aspect of this is Chinese nationalism since the CCP has tried glorifying China’s past, its leaders, its achievements and has tried removing almost all reminders of the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre in which Chinese troops armed with assault rifles and accompanied by tanks fired at demonstrators and those trying to block the military advance into Tiananmen Square when the Government declared martial law and sent the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to occupy parts of central Beijing. Thus, it can be understood that if the CCP is to fulfil “national rejuvenation”, nationalism is an integral part of the process. This is where Taiwan comes. Taiwan has no longer become just a “breakaway province” issue, rather it is now an issue of Chinese nationalism and to gain political points, individuals can keep international peace aside. A perfect example of this would be the Russian Annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 which saw Russian public support for the Russian President Vladimir Putin skyrocket following the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation. Therefore, the issue of Taiwan has reached a point where nationalism and the internal politics of the People’s Republic of China will end up dictating the final action to be taken by the PRC in regards to Taiwan and its people.
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) or the Soviet Union (until 1991) and the Russian Federation
During the tensions of the Cold War, on 3rd October, 1949, the Soviet Union broke off from the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance of 1945 which it signed with the Republic of China and it was in October, 1949 itself when the Soviet Union recognized the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate representative of the Chinese people. During the Korean War of 1950, the Soviet Union boycotted sessions of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) under the pretext that the PRC which was an important stakeholder in the conflict and which was the legitimate representative of the Chinese people, was not present in the UNSC. This was a reason behind the Soviet Union being unable to exercise its veto power when the UNSC passed Resolutions 82 and 83 which condemned the Soviet-PRC aided North Korean invasion into US aided South Korea and especially UNSC Resolution 84 which formed a Unified Command under the UN, led by the United States of America to “assist the Republic of Korea in defending itself against armed attack and thus to restore international peace and security in the area”. However, the Soviet Union was careful in the way it dealt with the Republic of China (Taiwan) and insisted on political action to solve the crisis unlike Chinese leaders who were considering military action in 1954 and 1958. The Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991. The Russian Federation maintains a certain level of cooperation with the Republic of China (Taiwan) through the Moscow-Taipei Coordination Commission on Economic and Cultural Cooperation though it does continue its one China policy and is currently forming a strong alliance with the PRC against the US and its allies.
India
During the Sino-Indian War of 1962, the Republic of China (Taiwan) had the same understanding of the situation as that of the PRC which could be seen when the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that they did not recognize the legality of the McMahon Line. However, then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru reached out to various Anti-Communist powers including the ROC Government led by Chiang with whom Nehru had maintained close contacts with since their first meeting during World War II. The ROC Government responded in a vague manner, stating that it was a conflict between “Indian nationalism and international communism” and not between the “Indian people and the Chinese people” and that the ROC believed “a fair and reasonable solution” should be found if the mainland was to be reclaimed and insisted that the attack against India allegedly “violated the traditional peace-loving spirit of the Chinese people” Even the Vice President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Chen Cheng, condemned the PRC as “the initiator and the aggressor” in the war and cited ideological differences rather than territorial ones as largely responsible for the conflict. The ROC Foreign Ministry had also apparently sent a telegram to all its overseas embassies, instructing them to avoid criticizing Nehru while remaining resolute in its stance regarding disputed territories.
Despite this rather complex history of relations between India and the Republic of China (Taiwan), in recent years, India has set up extensive ties with Taiwan in trade and investment as well as in technology, environment issues and people-to-people exchanges, in an attempt to form a Front against the PRC. Despite not establishing diplomatic relations with the ROC, India continues non-government interactions with the ROC through the India-Taipei Association (ITA) established in Taipei in 1995 which helps facilitate business, tourism, scientific, cultural and people-to-people exchanges as well as helps provide all consular and passport services. The counterpart organization of the ITA is the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre established in New Delhi. In 2007, the former leader of the Kuomintang and a major candidate in the then 2008 Presidential election of Taiwan, made an unofficial visit to India. India and the Republic of China (Taiwan) signed a Bilateral Investment Agreement in 2002 and an updated version of it was signed by both countries in 2018. India and the ROC also signed an Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) Mutual Recognition Agreement, a customs mutual assistance agreement and an ATA Carnet which is an international customs document that permits the tax-free and duty-free temporary export and import of non-perishable goods for up to one year. Thus, while India may not diplomatically recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan) as the sole representative of the Chinese people, it does maintain close ties with the country in economic, trade, commercial and cultural terms and in the light of the Chinese aggression across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), has begun working with Taiwan to strengthen the front against the People’s Republic of China.
The European Union (EU)
The countries involved in the European Union have usually adhered to the “One China principle”, meaning that they recognize the People’s Republic of China as the sole representative of the Chinese people as well as have increased economic cooperation with the PRC. However, in light of increasing tensions between the West and the PRC regarding the PRC’s genocidal acts against Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, the South China Sea dispute and economic coercion through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as increasing tensions stoked by the PRC against the ROC, the EU has begun adopting a somewhat hostile policy towards the PRC despite individual countries within the EU still maintaining close cooperation with the EU. The European Parliament was unable to ratify the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) it had signed with the PRC. In October, 2021, for the first time ever, the Foreign Minister of the ROC, Joseph Wu held meetings in Brussels with members of the European Parliament from nine countries as well as undisclosed EU officials at a “non-political level”. In November, 2021, for the first time ever, an official delegation of members from the European Parliament’s Special Committee on Foreign Interference arrived in the Republic of China (Taiwan). Moreover, the European Parliament has adopted a comprehensive blueprint for improving relations with the ROC through a “comprehensive enhanced partnership”. This includes provisions for a bilateral investment agreement between the European Union and the Republic of China (Taiwan), strong support for the ROC’s role in international organizations, increasing scientific, cultural and people-to-people exchanges and cooperation in the media, health and high-tech sectors. The resolution also involves changing the name of the European Economic and Trade Office in Taiwan to the European Union Office in Taiwan in order to “reflect the broad scope of EU-Taiwanese ties”. The European Parliament adopted the resolution in a landslide with 580 votes for the resolution and 26 against.
This goes on to show that with increasing aggression from China with regards to Taiwan as well as sanctions on European Members of Parliament and the effective destruction of the “one country, two systems” framework in Hong Kong have all played a key role in persuading the EU to take a harder stance against the People’s Republic of China, in addition to increased pressure from the United States of America which is engaged in a war of competition with the PRC as well as the need to engage with a growing Taiwan that is boosting its economic and trade relations with the other parts of the world.
The United Nations (UN)
In 1945, when World War II ended and the United Nations (UN) was formed, as mentioned earlier, the flames of the Chinese Civil War between Chinese Government forces led by the KMT and the communist guerrilla forces of Mao Zedong sparked once again. The so-called “victors” of World War II were made permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and included the United States of America (USA), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK), France, the then Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) or the Soviet Union and the then Republic of China (ROC) which was under the Government of the KMT. When the first major conflict under the US-Soviet Union Cold War began in the form of the Korean War of 1950, despite opposition from the USSR regarding the presence of the ROC despite the victory of Mao Zedong and the CCP and considering that the KMT governed over a small island whereas the CCP controlled mainland China thus being worthy of becoming a member of the UN, the US and the West as a whole refused to budge since the KMT Government in the ROC was in support of the US and thus had a vital role to play in fighting communism on the side of the US.
However, it was in 1971 that countries in the UN finally took the initiative to put facts ahead of politics and the UN General Assembly passed the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 titled “Restoration of the lawful rights of the People’s Republic of China in the United Nations” which mentioned that restoration of the lawful rights of the PRC was “essential for both the protection of the Charter of the United Nations and for the cause that the United Nations must serve under the Charter”. It recognized that the representatives of the are “the only lawful representatives of China to the United Nations and that the People’s Republic of China is one of the five permanent members of the Security Council”. Moreover, it resulted in the restoration of all its rights to the People’s Republic of China, the recognition of its Government as the “only legitimate representatives of China to the United Nations” and the expulsion of the representatives of the Chiang Kai-Shek from the place which they “unlawfully occupied at the United Nations and in all the organizations related to it”.
Although the US has been pushing for more involvement of the ROC with the UN and its organizations, especially the World Health Organization (WHO) since the ROC had adopted efficient tactics of tackling the novel coronavirus pandemic which helped in reducing its spread in the country significantly, thus making it important for an organization like the WHO which is dedicated to fighting the pandemic so that it may formulate lockdown and pandemic tackling strategies on the basis of actions of Governments like those in the ROC which help restricting the spread of the pandemic. However, there has been a concerted effort by the PRC and allied countries to oppose these efforts to enforce the “One-China policy” in the international stage…
Can the Taiwan independence issue really be solved?
The Taiwan independence issue is one which is highly complex in nature in both the legal and geopolitical spheres. If we were to refer to legalities, what would be important to point to would be the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, 1933. Article 1 of the Montevideo Convention states that “the state as a person of international law should possess the following qualifications:
(a) A Permanent Population;
(b) A Defined Territory;
(c) Government;
(d) Capacity to enter into relations with the other states”.
Let us examine each of these parameters closely. First, the case about a permanent population can be made through the fact that the people of Taiwan have been getting more detached from mainland China and are developing a “Taiwanese” nationality and culture, one unique to the island of Taiwan itself. Even an article in The Los Angeles Times has shown that with every generation, the people of Taiwan have started feeling more Taiwanese and less Chinese. Coming to the concept of defined territory, what is indicative of Taiwan is a country with a main island called Formosa which stretches across the Taiwan Strait from the south-eastern coast of mainland China and shares its maritime borders with the People’s Republic of China to the northwest, Japan to the northeast and the Philippines to the south. Coming to Government, initially, the Republic of China (Taiwan) consisted of a one-party military dictatorship however in the later 1980s and the late 1990s, the ROC transitioned to a multi-party democracy with a semi-presidential system and currently has a flourishing democratic system which allows free and fair elections to its people where they elected President Tsai-Ing Wen who is the country’s first female President. Coming to understand and analyse a state’s “capacity to enter relations with the other states”, it is not exactly mentioned that “relations” is simply confined to diplomatic relations. The Republic of China (Taiwan) already maintains diplomatic relations with Belize, Eswatini, Guatemala, Haiti, the Holy See (Vatican City) which is only an observer nation in the United Nations, Honduras, the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Tuvalu. Moreover, as already stated, it maintains unofficial relations with multiple countries including major world powers like the US, the EU, India and the Russian Federation, not to mention the fact that it maintains actual unofficial de facto embassies in cooperation with the US, the EU and India. The People’s Republic of China may not be satisfied to see Taiwan as a separate state and see other countries actually recognizing a Taiwanese state but Article 3 of the Montevideo Convention also ensures that political existence of a state “independent of recognition of other states”. Thus, the Republic of China (Taiwan) is actually a state, in accordance with the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, 1933 which also forms a part of customary international law.
However, polls and reports show that the majority of Taiwanese people themselves do not support the formal independence of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and maintain the status quo wherein Taiwan is not invaded by China but at the same time is not formally independent and instead, just independent in spirit. Even Taiwanese politicians including the current President, no matter how anti-China they might be, have never mentioned the formal independence of Taiwan as their objective. Rather, they have simply emphasized that Taiwan is actually already independent so there is no need for a formal one. There is a reason for this and it lies in the PRC’s Anti-Secession Law, 2005, particularly Article 8 which gives the Chinese Government in the PRC the power to take “non-peaceful means” in the event of a formal secession. Formal Taiwanese independence is to the People’s Republic of China what Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is to the Russian Federation: A red line which cannot be crossed. Therefore, the question of solving the Taiwanese independence question is doubtful at this point considering that it could invite conflict with the PRC.
Will the situation in Taiwan escalate to World War III in the event of a Chinese invasion?
There are in fact, worrying trends in the situation in Taiwan with the PRC sending hundreds of bombers violating Taiwanese airspace and now reports claiming that the Biden administration has added more US troops to Taiwan over the past few months. There are reportedly 40 troops on the island to protect the de facto US embassy and train Taiwanese troops. However, there is hardly any chance of a World War III breaking out from here. Let us examine this with examples from history.
Let us go back to the period before World War II, when international diplomacy came to use a new word called “appeasement”. Japan was allowed to invade Manchuria and go further into China without much consequences and the British Foreign Secretary and French Foreign Minister agreed to concede two-thirds of Abyssinia to Fascist Italy in order to prevent a direct confrontation. In 1936, the leader of Nazi Germany, Adolf Hitler, sent troops into the Rhineland, in direct violation of the Treaty of Versailles of 1919 and the Locarno Treaties of 1925. The Munich Conference saw Great Britain, France and Italy agree to give up Sudetenland to Nazi Germany provided Hitler did not invade the rest of Czechoslovakia. Czechoslovakia had to yield to the combination of military pressure of Nazi Germany, Poland and Hungary as well as diplomatic pressure of the UK and France. However, the reluctance of Britain and France to defend Czechoslovakia from any possible Nazi invasion encouraged and resulted in Hitler invading the rest of the country. Now, coming to the situation in Taiwan and what these failures of appeasement have to do with it, the PRC has always intended to invade Taiwan and annex it into China. For the US, Taiwan may be an important ally and a key piece to the US strategy of tackling China. Moreover, China also realizes that they cannot expand their territories further into India due to India being a nuclear state and not even in the South China Sea where there are claims to the portions of the sea made by the PRC as well as Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan. Therefore, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would most probably mark a temporary stop to Chinese expansionism which would be much better an option for the US than going to war with a nuclear state like the People’s Republic of China.
Moreover, we cannot help but go back to the Korean War of 1950 to understand what situation the US is dealing with now. During the Korean War, while the US was leading a UN Command to fight Soviet and Chinese aided North Korean troops, the US had been contemplating about using atomic bombs in strikes against targets situated in China and North Korea. However, by that time, the Soviet Union had already tested its first atomic bomb and had been developing more. Thus, the Soviet Union was bound to attack the US in the event of a nuclear bombing of China and North Korea by them which in turn dissuaded the US from using atomic bombs in the conflict. Therefore, nuclear deterrence prevented a possible nuclear war.
The same is happening in the case of Taiwan where we find, according to the China military power report of the US Department of Defense (DoD), the People’s Republic of China has begun amassing nuclear warheads to the extent of having 700 by 2027 and 1000 by 2030 which is more than doubling last year’s estimate. It even mentioned that China is “investing in, and expanding, the number of its land, sea and air based nuclear delivery platforms and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support this major expansion of its nuclear forces”. In 2020, China had also deployed the dual capable hypersonic glide-vehicle system paired with a medium-range ballistic missile known as DF-17 and even the US is falling behind China in hypersonic technology. The PRC is not looking to go to war with the US, rather it is trying to prevent war with the US. There is a theory in geopolitics known as the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) Theory according to which countries eliminate each other using nuclear weapons which has never happened before and this is very well highlighted in the situation of North Korea. North Korea has an authoritarian Government which has violated US and UNSC sanctions, provoked tensions with South Korea, launched cyber-attacks against the US and is a close ally of the PRC. However, the reason why the US has not yet invaded North Korea is because of the simple fact that it has nuclear weapons such as the Hwasong-15 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) and possibly 25-50 nuclear warheads. Thus, China is trying to strongarm the US into accepting an invasion of Taiwan by using nuclear weapons.
The problem in appeasing to China and giving up Taiwan is that Taiwan is an important country for manufacturing semiconductor chips which is used in computers, smartphones, appliances, etc. and China gaining control would result in Chinese companies getting access to these chips which is a cause of worry among the Western powers. The Biden Administration may have given its assurance that it will defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion however in a situation where countries are themselves skeptical about joining the US in collective security for Taiwan against a Chinese invasion as well as a rapid expansion of the PRC’s nuclear arsenal leaves the US with the most limited of options. This also comes at a time when US military bases in Guam are coming under the threat of Chinese missiles. Thus, if the PRC were to launch a full scale invasion into Taiwan, then the US would follow the same procedure as it did with the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014: Sanctions, condemnation and more sanctions. However, this same theory will not hold good in the case of the Indo-China conflict where India is a country capable of defending itself efficiently and one which the US would be willing to back against a Chinese invasion of India in an effort to fight China and steer India away from Russia at the same time. In the South China Sea, the US can still afford limited military confrontation due to the Anti-China claims made to certain portions of the South China Sea by Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and even the Republic of China (Taiwan). Therefore, it is possible that China allows the current island of Taiwan to remain in the form of a semi-autonomous state but an increasing pro-independence stance of Taiwanese Government officials could end up in a possible Chinese invasion and the US having to give in to the People’s Republic of China.
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