By Senior Writer, Bhaswar Gangopadhyay
News flashed left and right just as Ukrainian Défense ministry stated that Russia had assigned militant groups near its borders after completing training exercises on November 2021, with almost 90,000 troops standing just 260 kilometers from the Ukraine border. Within months this took a horrific turn as the European Union and America got involved souring the matter further.
With chances of a full-blown Russian invasion of Ukraine, a need to understand the stewing tension between the two communities is essential to understand why hostilities emerged in the first place. During the Cold war era, when the Soviet Union shared a spot with the United States as one of the major world powers, Ukraine was one of the most powerful socialist republics under this union, following only Russia in its importance. Russians and Ukrainians share hundreds of years of cultural links and thus The Ukraine Soviet Socialist Republic happened to be economically and strategically very crucial to the whole of the Soviet Union. after the split, both Russia and the USA have tried their hands at getting the favour of Ukraine from a political standpoint.
After the split of Soviet Union, although Russia financially bounced back from the initial chaos, it could not do maintain its political anarchy in the region as the earlier communist Republics constituting the soviet Union took up a Democratic stance, attempting to join the European Union and some of them even joining the NATO in 2004(namely Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia).While this proved beneficial for the states which joined the European Union and NATO, it did not sit well with the Kremlin powers seeing its former allies joining hands with the west, hence eventually with Uncle Sam. The political map of Europe shows that Ukraine currently serves as a buffer zone between Russia and the European Union. So, when in 1997, Ukraine signed a NATO-Ukraine partnership and later in 2008, showed interest in joining the NATO summit, it felt like a personal attack to the Iron Curtains.
For political reference, at the height of the Soviet Empire, the distance between Germany and Moscow was more than 2000km. With Ukraine joining the NATO, thus becoming a US ally, the distance between the west and Russia gets reduced to a mere 600 kilometers. Worse yet is the short 100km passage separating Russia from Japan, yet another US ally.
On March 2014, Russia invaded Crimea, an autonomous region of Ukraine located south of the country, going ahead with a referendum not recognized by any international agency, stating that 97% of Crimean people wanted to join Russia and that the voter turnout was 83%.The United Nations refuted with the poking at the results as rigged, with the actual figure being a much more modest 40% and 55% turnout and vote respectively.
What makes it easier for Russia to carry on with the unruly takeover is the fact that the eastern provinces of Ukraine hold many Ukrainians who support Russia and want Ukraine to be a part of it. Allegedly, Russia had started Pro Russian unrest in Eastern Ukraine, prompting military insurgency in Luhansk and Donetsk in order to prevent Ukraine from joining the European Union. Political Bribery had also been attempted by the Iron curtains, giving Ukraine “benefits” which included $15 billion and cheaper oil prices, against guarantee that it did not join the EU. Although the President at that time Viktor Yanukovych took Russia’s offer and did not sign the agreement of joining the EU, the misinterpretation of the peoples will by the ruling party led to mass protests against the President. What followed was his impeachment and ultimately Russia responding boldly by invading Crimea, while peaceful annexation was the term preferred by the Kremlin representatives.
The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian forces, a clear violation of a near gazillion international treaties, was heavily shunned by Western Powers with the Biden Administration clearly stating that any actions as such would have severe consequences. So, while the backlash might be plentiful, making Russia think twice about annexing Ukraine, the support from China has also been firm. China went ahead and put some 90,000 of its own troops on its border with Ukraine. A modern-day annexation with such bitterly harsh opposition from both superpowers might result in something far more sinister than a mere regional conflict, as a regional annexation did trigger most of the large-scale wars in human history.
As far as the Indian Administration is concerned, The Indian Security Advisor presented a rather politically correct answer. The politically neutral stance India takes is not merely a matter of subduing controversy. A problem much deeper runs, putting India in a terrible middle ground where the bittersweet relation with Russia cannot be turned either way. For one, India is one of the staunchest supporters of National territorial integrity in modern bureaucracy, making it hypocritical for India to support Russian hostilities. The Russian backing in the Indo-China border conflict, however, makes it hard to stand against Russia and straight up shunning their actions. Quoting the security minister,
“As far as we are concerned, we are watching what is happening in the Ukraine with some concern. We would hope that whatever internal issues there are within Ukraine are settled peacefully and that the broader issues of reconciling the various interests involved, and there are after all legitimate Russian and other interests involved, are discussed, negotiated, and that there is a satisfactory resolution to them. But more than that at this stage when everything is still fluid, I do not think we can tell you.”
Currently as of December 28, Russia has amassed over 120,000 troops and Russian defence Ministry has warned high risk of armed conflict in the Ukraine border Region. The US action has been subtle, resulting primarily on intense diplomacy to lobby the Russians, but seeing the intense no-comprise policy Putin follows, the chances of that happening seem bleak, if any. If situations escalate, India will have to deviate from its general form and back one of the two parties. Perhaps, the Indo-Russian friendship standing strong from the time of the Indo China war might be the casualty to protect India’s friendship with the ever so delicate fickle minded west.
Commentaires